'Good seasons start with good beginnings.' -Sparky Anderson
We are less than two weeks away from Opening Day of baseball. THIS IS NOT A DRILL! Our long winter nightmare is almost over. We got a wonderful taste of meaningful baseball with the World Baseball Classic tournament. The WBC comes around every three years and I love it. There's more outward emotion, explosive moments, and amazing moments (Adam Jones' leaping catch anyone?). The wonderful thing about it is that it's just a two week tournament. They cram lots of talent and entertainment in that time. It's hard to think that this type of energy and hype and emotion can be spread out over the course of a 162 game season, but you can still enjoy the marathon that is the baseball season.
The A.L. Central is in flux right now. A couple of teams in Minnesota and Chicago are in rebuild mode. Detroit and Kansas City are both teams that can compete for a post season spot but are a few pieces away from being true contenders. Only Cleveland got better this offseason. At least it started out that way. The injury bug has hit them a little bit in the last week, but they were the only team that added pieces. Good pieces.
They added Edwin Encarnacion and will have Andrew Miller (former Tiger Andrew Miller) for a full season. When you're the reigning divisional and league champions and you add a couple of pieces that bolster your roster you are crowned the champs of the upcoming year. On paper they should win the division. Granted, it might be closer than last year because surely they won't beat Detroit fourteen out of eighteen games again. Right? RIGHT? At least that is the hope. They are pretty young with the exception of a few players and are just starting to hit their stride. They could be the top of the division for the next few years until Chicago's team comes up.
Chicago is in full rebuild mode and will be really good in about three or four years depending on the development of the prospects they added to their farm system when they traded away a couple of players. Minnesota has been in rebuild mode since the early 2000s. I'm starting to think that they aren't very good. I know they are a small market team and can't draw big name players, but for a long time they had a highly rated farm system and the players haven't really panned out. We've lived in Minnesota for quite some time now and I've gotten to see a lot of their games. It's a struggle to sit through some of them because the talent isn't really there.
Detroit went into the offseason saying that they were going to get 'younger and leaner'. They traded away one player. That was it. Granted there were plenty of sighs of relief in Tiger Town, but at the same time they are getting older. Everyone is happy about the trades they made to get their younger pitching staff, but the offense is getting old. I don't know if they were asking for too much for the players that they were shopping or if no one was interested at all, but I was a bit disappointed. I want to see them throw the towel in for a few years in an effort to get better in the long run. This is how you reopen the window for championship runs. They are still dangerous. They are still good. It will all depend on the pitching rotation.
What the hell happened to Kansas City? Was it just a hiccup after going to back to back World Series? They still have their core team. They are still pretty young and just as talented. Just like the Tigers, the team will go as far as the pitching staff will carry them. If you don't have a starting rotation that can pitch your team to a good chunk of wins, you are in trouble. Sure, their bullpen is still pretty good, but not as good as it was two years ago. The game is no longer six innings before getting to a shutdown bullpen. There are now holes in the armor. Their core players are coming up on free agency. If they don't sign team friendly contracts, Kansas City will be back to rebuilding. They would need to trade away their star players to get young talent or draft picks back. The Royals are still really good, don't get me wrong. They just don't scare me as much as they did about four years ago. It is very likely that they can come up and end ahead of Cleveland and Detroit. Their roster is full of players that get it. They know how to win and what it takes.
With all that said, here's how I see the A.L. Central ending up when the season is complete:
1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Kansas City
4. Minnesota
5. Chicago
I'm a big picture guy and I think that Detroit won't be in the playoff hunt and I hope that this is evident by the beginning of July. They could trade off guys like J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton for prospects. Martinez is up for free agency at the end of this year and if healthy is going to draw lots of interest and will probably come away with a large contract. The Tigers are moving away from larger contracts so it is safe to say that unless he wants to sign a team friendly deal, he is going to be playing somewhere else in 2018. If he signs elsewhere, the Tigers won't get anything in return. They
need to trade him away if there is no shot at the playoffs. With some of the other teams in the MLB, I don't think they truly have a shot at the World Series, but who knows. I hope I'm wrong on that. Upton has an opt out clause in his contract. He can bounce at the end of the year if he wants. Yes he is under contract through 2021 (I think), but the opt out clause is there in case he wants to test free agency. Again, if the Tigers want something in return he will need to be traded.