Try Again

We all know what has happened over the past five months.  Pandemic.  The Covid-19 virus has changed our lives forever.  There is no two ways about it.  One of the main constants in my life is sports, in particular baseball.  The season was just about to get underway when the country went into lock down and it is finally resuming.  I know that on a personal level I would get along just fine without watching any sports for a year, but it is nice to have.  It's a bit of an escape for me.  Some people have video games or working out or personal groups.  I have sports, in particular baseball.  I just always have.  And for the first three weeks when it was suppose to be being played, it felt like something was missing.  As it became more and more clear that the pandemic was never really going away and sport seasons were getting postponed or canceled, all I could really think about was watching baseball in 2021.  That would have been okay.  By the time whispers and murmurs were starting that the season might well indeed take place, I just thought 'cool.  weird but cool.'  The day are finally here!  Tomorrow the 2020 season will begin!


With the season going from 162 games down to 60, I need to re-imagine my fun hot takes for the season.  For a quick recap of what I thought back in May, follow this link.  This season is going to be more fun than the typical year but also more stressful.  Not for us Tigers fans though, they'll still end the season way outside the playoffs.  Or will they? 

• C.J. Cron will lead the A.L. in home runs with 15.
• Austin Romine will throw out 25% of potential base stealers 
• Casey Mize will make three starts with the MLB team.
• Riley Greene will make his MLB debut this season.
• Spencer Turnbll will be traded.
• No Tiger will steal more than 5 bases.
• Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris will become the Opener/Mid option at the back end of the rotation.
• Ron Gardenhire will be ejected 3 times
•  The Tigers will not have a top five draft pick in 2021.
• I think the Pirates, Marlins, Royals, Orioels, and Mariners will all have worse seasons
•  After the season, Cron and Matthew Boyd will both receive contract extensions

Delayed Hot Takes

As with everything else, the MLB season has been delayed because of the COVID pandemic.  We were so close to getting into the regular season too.  At the very least, we got to see some live current baseball.  One of the few positives to come out of this pandemic, from a sports perspective, is that classic games are being broadcasted on television in lieu live current games.  I was able to watch three games from the 1984 World Series.  I've seen Gibson's home run in game five so many times it feels like I watched it live, but I have never seen any of the other games.  I mean, I was two years old at the time.  Two games of the 1968 World Series have even been shown.  So that's cool I guess.

Typically, I have taken some time right before the season started to have a little fun making a list of hot takes but everything went sideways.  As we get closer and closer to the season happening (maybe June?  Maybe July?) I can't help but think of making a list again.  It's fun and the Tigers really aren't right now.  The light at the end of the tunnel isn't getting closer unfortunately in this rebuild, but when it is done we might have something resembling a decent major league baseball team to cheer for.  It'll be tough to throw out some numbers because they'll play about half of a season, but lets give it a whirl.  Anyway, here's a fun list of hot takes for the Detroit Tigers 2020 shortened season:

• Niko Goodrum will finish in the top 5 in Gold Glove voting at the shortstop position
• C.J. Cron, Jonathan Schoop, and Miguel Cabrera will combine to hit 55 home runs
• JaCoby Jones will be traded during the season (is there going to be a trade deadline?) and Victor Reyes will be the everyday center fielder
• Dawel Lugo is going to surpass Jeimer Candelario in the depth chart at third base
• Cron and Austin Romine will get contract extensions at the end of the year 
• Goodrum, Reyes, and Cameron Maybin will combine for 40 stolen bases

And now for the pitching side of things:

• Jordan Zimmermann gets DFAd at some point in the season
• Buck Farmer will finish the season with more saves than Joe Jimenez
• At least four different pitchers will record a save for the team
• Casey Mize makes at least one start at the major league level 
• Matthew Boyd will be traded (this makes me sad)
• Matt Manning will get a cup of coffee with the team
• Michael Fulmer will return this year not as a starter, but in the bullpen
• Daniel Norris and Tyler Alexander will combine for 12 wins

Just some random stuff:

• Riley Greene and Kody Clemens will end the year in Toledo
• The Tigers will end the year ahead of four other teams (Baltimore, Miami, Pittsburgh, and Seattle)
• The Tigers will draft batters with their first two picks in the draft
• Ron Gardenhire will sign a new contract after the season

Hot Takes: 2019 Edition

It is here.  The 2019 MLB season starts today!  I did this last year so I figured why not do it again?  Hot takes are fun when you make predictions based on some hope but also outlandish thoughts.  With the Tigers circling the bottom of the standings, you might as well have some fun with it.  Here.  We.  Go.  

• JaCoby Jones will be a Gold Glove finalist
• Niko Goodrum will have a 20/20 season (I whole heatedly believe this)
• Jordan Zimmermann will have a 15 win season
• Miguel Cabrera will steal two bases
• Christian Stewart will lead the team in home runs
• Nicholas Castellanos will sign an extension with the team
• Shane Greene will be traded, but will still end up leading the team in saves
• Casey Mize will make at least one start in the Majors
• The Tigers will win five games against the Cleveland Indians
• Matt Moore and Tyson Ross are both flipped for prospects at the trade deadline
• Ron Gardenhire will be ejected five times

I cannot wait for the Detroit Tigers to be good again.  Most everyone thinks they'll be good again in 2021 which sounds like a long ways away, but it's only two more seasons.
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*begins to cry uncontrollably* 

A Season of Sadness

The 2019 MLB season is upon us.  We have already seen games that matter played.  Granted it was just the Mariners and A's so no one really paid attention.  Except to see Ichiro play his last games.  And the games were played in Japan so they were on SUPER EARLY.  The real Opening Day is the 28th.  One week from now!  My co-workers make fun of me because of my excitement, but I take the day off and just soak it all in. 

It is going to be a very painful season for us Tigers fans.  The youth movement has started, but all the prospects that are going to bring this team back to relevance are still a year or two away.  By all accounts, 2020 and 2021 is when we will start to see the top ten to fifteen prospects in the bigs.  If they're still with the organization.  Also, one of the core starting pitchers, Michael Fulmer, is out for the season after his elbow exploded recently.  We'll see him back some time in the 2020 season.  If you want to find the positive to this devastating news this just means he'll have one less season's worth of innings on his arm.  He'll be well rested and could be the true number one we thought he would be after his rookie season.  This could also be Castellanos's last season with the Tigers.  And Miggy is coming off a lost season and is another year older.  

With all this bad news, what do Tigers fans have to look forward to?  Ummm, Christian Stewart is gonna mash a ton of baseballs.  Just don't watch him in the outfield.  Niko Goodrum is the new Don Kelly/Andrew Romine.  But better.  I think he has the ability to make games fun to watch, but as a utility player he won't have a true position each and every game.  The bullpen, surprisingly enough, could be a bright spot.  If the starting rotation can eat enough innings where the bullpen won't be taxed by August that is.

There are going to be long stretches this season where the Tigers are going to be unwatchable.  There are no two ways about it.  The first month of the season they have a chance to be a .500 team playing teams like Toronto, Kansas City, and Minnesota, but they've also got Boston, Cleveland, and New York on the schedule.  As fans, we just have to look for the fun and positive to get us through what is undoubtedly going to be a tough season.

End of the season record prediction:  67-95. 4th in the AL Central.  Kansas City sucks more than Detroit does. 

Hot Take Recap

The 2018 Detroit Tigers baseball season has ended.  Sadly.  But also mercilessly.  Anyone paying attention knew that this season was going to be a bit of a struggle as they traded off any and all pieces that made them contenders in the past.  The fun thing about cheering for a team with low expectations is that if they do well for a stretch of games it feels like some grand accomplishment.  While the prospects the team is waiting for are still in the minors, we fans got to see some pieces of the future play throughout most of the year.  Guys like Jemier Candelario and JaCoby Jones played the majority of the season and both showed what they can contribute to the club going forward.  Christian Stewart got a quick cup of coffee with the club at the end of the season and showed off his bad defense and big bat. 

At the beginning of the season, I wrote a post with some hot luke warm takes.  I stayed conservative with most of the takes and didn't go too far on a limb.  When you are having fun with hot takes/predictions for a team that you know will struggle during the season, you can say things like Ron Gardenhire will get ejected seven times.  To recap, here are my ten bold predictions from the beginning of the year with what actually happened:

• The Tigers will go 72-90 (they went 64-98)
• They'll finish fourth in the division ahead of Kansas City (they finished 3rd)
• Jeimer Candelario will hit .270 for the season (he hit .224)
• James McCann will hit 20 home runs (he hit 8)
• The Tigers will send two players (Castellanos, Fulmer) to the All Star game (Joe Jimenez was the lone representative for the team)
• Joe Jimenez will end the season as the team closer and save 15 games (he had 3 saves and was the setup man the entire year)
• Dawel Lugo will end the season as the every day second baseman with Dixon Machado moving to shortstop (yes and no. Machado was DFA'd)
• Both of those predictions will happen because the Tigers will trade Shane Greene and Jose Iglesias before the trade deadline (nope)
•  Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez will both hit 25 home runs (lolz, no.)
• Ron Gardenhire will be ejected 7 times (he was ejected 4 times)

Like I said, it's fun to do things like that so you can look back and have a good laugh.  The only thing that I came close on was Lugo being around and where they ended the season in the standings.  I look forward to doing this again next spring when we once again know the Tigers are going to flounder and we'll be there every painful step along the way.  

Let's Get Bold

Around this time each year, I feel like this blog turns into a baseball-centric blog.  I get that itch to watch this sport that I love.  Today is Opening Day across the board.  Well, mostly.  The Tigers game has been postponed due to rain, but there are still plenty of games to watch.  The Twins game is on later this afternoon, so I'll still hear the crack of the bat and the thump of the glove.  We all know the Tigers are rebuilding, but that doesn't mean we can't be excited about the team.  There is less pressure to win a lot for the team.  Most everyone has come to terms with what the Tigers are doing.  So I get to have a little fun with some predictions for the Tigers.  I no longer have to wonder if they're going to win the division or make it past the first round.  For now anyway.  So here we go.

10 Bold Predictions for the 2018 Tigers season:

• The Tigers will go 72-90
• They'll finish fourth in the division ahead of Kansas City
• Jeimer Candelario will hit .270 for the season 
• James McCann will hit 20 home runs
• The Tigers will send two players (Castellanos, Fulmer) to the All Star game
• Joe Jimenez will end the season as the team closer and save 15 games
• Dawel Lugo will end the season as the every day second baseman with Dixon Machado moving to shortstop
• Both of those predictions will happen because the Tigers will trade Shane Greene and Jose Iglesias before the trade deadline
•  Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez will both hit 25 home runs
• Ron Gardenhire will be ejected 7 times

 

A 6th Option

While my mind is on the Detroit Tigers, I thought of something the other day that makes me wonder if it would be a smart move.  In an effort to put less stress on the arms of the current pitching staff, would it be advisable to move to a six man starting rotation?  By all accounts, the prospects that the Tigers have won't be ready until 2019 and 2020.  And in some cases, even as late as 2021.  That is two, three, and four years that the pitchers will have on their arms for throw away seasons.

Teams work with a five man starting rotations.  During the course of a season, on average, guys are making about thirty starts.  The work horses of a team, the top two guys, will throw two hundred plus innings.  The magic number for a starting pitcher each game was once one hundred pitches.  Absolutely there are going to be games that a starter gets pulled early or could throw seven or eight innings.  There are going to be games when he is efficient with his pitches and games when he will struggle.  If you look at an 'average' year and called it thirty starts, one hundred pitches per start, and two hundred innings, that is three thousand pitches on a guy's arm.  I know it is not an exact science, and there are always going to be disabled list stints ans skipped starts.  For the sake of this argument, if you take just the top two guys (in the Tigers' case Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris) that is a ton of mileage on your future rotation anchors for years that mean nothing.  By 2021, that can be close to nine thousand pitches thrown. 

IF, by chance, the Tigers wanted to do something crazy and throw in one more pitcher into the rotation, that could have a great impact on the guys that are up in the MLB right now.  A sixth man would drop an average year from thirty starts down to twenty five (again, a basic average).  That is five hundred fewer pitches each year.  Not only is it fewer starts and pitches each year, it is also an extra day rest and recovery.  Saving these arms for when the younger players are ready to make an impact could make the difference when it comes to a playoff run.  I know more goes into a starting pitcher's year than basic numbers I just happen to throw out, but can you imagine a pitcher's career being elongated one or two more years just because of something small like adding one extra starting pitcher for just two or three years. 

Would something like this work?  Most starting pitchers condition themselves to be ready to throw every fifth game.  Would changing your routine by one day make a difference?  Could these guys adjust to something like that?  Another idea that has been floated is 'bullpening'.  The main idea is that starters go three or four innings then the game is turned over to the bullpen.  Some teams are starting to build super bullpens where they add shut down guys.  It use to be a team would have a guy for the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning in a set role, now you see relief pitchers in all kinds of different innings.  Yes, this would limit starter's innings, but if they know that they are only going to be out there for four innings, won't they just go out and throw as hard as they can?  Empty the gas tank as it were.  I think the idea of bullpening is maybe a little more dangerous to the starters because of that.  They'll throw harder in a shorter period of time than they would if their starts were longer. 

Maybe we'll see a team here and there try something like this for a short period of time.  Maybe coming out of Spring Training there are a couple of guys fighting for that last rotation spot and the manager wants to see them duke it out for a few more weeks.  However, I don't think this is something that will catch on.  It wouldn't last all season.  I like any idea that could help preserve someone's career whether it is having a six man rotation or a super bullpen when relievers are coming out in the fourth inning.  If a guy can go out there and throw for one more year because he has pitched fewer innings in the past, wouldn't an idea like this be kind of worth it?  Besides, all it takes is one pitch for a man's career to be over.

A Difference in Terribleness

The next three or four years are going to be terrible if you are a Detroit Tigers fan.  Last year marked the end of an era.  They started the full rebuild process.  Well known players were shipped away and in return guys who won't sniff the MLB for another three years.  It's tough.  It is tough to give up on the level the Tigers have been at for the past ten or eleven years.  Coming to grips with how bad the Tigers are going to be for the next few years is going to be easier than when they were bad in the early 2000s.  For the main reason in that the future is bright.  Kind of.

The one main difference between the two terrible teams is that the 2018 Tigers are going to be launching off point for the future.  Yes, over the next two or three years the Tigers are going to be losing close to 100 games a year.  A good year will see them lose maybe 90 games.  This is not a positive outlook, I know.  The prospects that the Tigers got last year are so young and raw that they aren't on many peoples' radar.  It could be that they end up being just average players, but they could also be borderline stars.  They might just be what we fans are looking for.  They'll be labeled as the 'blue collar, lunch pail' guys that the city of Detroit will embrace.  This is how the Kansas City Royals did it.  Talented players but not super stars. 

The early 2000s Tigers were just bad.  There was no hopeful future.  Thanks Randy Smith.  It wasn't until Dave Dombrowski came in and started trading away prospects to get big name players that they started to get better.  They went out, they spent, and they are living with the contractual obligations.  The end of Victor Martinez's contract and career is dragging on the organization.  That'll be over after this year.  Same thing with Miguel Cabrera.  We all love Miggy, but it is getting close to the end of his career and he isn't who he use to be.

The times have changed though.  The days of seven and eight year, hundreds of million dollar contracts, for the Tigers at least, are done.  The young players are going to be around just long enough to get the Tigers back into the top teams.  Then, when free agency rolls around they'll leave to a team like the Red Sox or Yankees or Dodgers if they're good enough.  This is how baseball is now.  You develop the talent, use them to make deep playoff runs and then when it comes time to pay up big time, there are only a few markets that can oblige them.  Then it is back to square one.  This is where the Tigers cannot falter.  They cannot let up on drafting and developing young talent because as soon as the prospects they got last year are gone, the next group has to be ready for the Show.  This is what needs to happen in order to sustain long runs in the MLB now.  

The Foundation is Set

The dust has settled on the MLB trade deadline.  The Tigers ended up pulling off one more trade which most everyone was expecting.  They sent Justin Wilson and Alex Avila to the Chicago Cubs for more prospects.  As with the JD Martinez trade, the prospects weren't the highest profile.  To be fair, the pieces that the Tigers moved were not worthy of top ten or twenty ranked prospects.  After the Martinez trade, the fan base was ready to run Al Avila out of town.  After the Wilson/Avila trade, most seem to be willing to give it a chance.  These trades were necessary and were extremely helpful for the organization. 

All in all, the Tigers got six prospects all of which are infielders.  Third basemen and shortstops at the moment.  Some people that know more than I do think one or two might end up being an everyday player at the major league level while others will end up being a serviceable bench player.  So why should a fan be excited about players that aren't going to be the next Bryce Harper or Kris Bryant?  Because the Tigers didn't have these types of prospects before.  Looking at the top prospects within the organization, before the trade, seven of the top ten prospects for the Tigers are pitchers.  The other three prospects were all outfielders.  When all you draft is power arms and outfielders this is what you end up with.  After the trades, two of the new prospects are slotted into the top ten and another is within the top fifteen.  The farm system still isn't the best in the league, in fact I believe most have it ranked in the bottom third of the league, but it is improving. 

I think that the foundation is set for the next era of the Detroit Tigers.  I don't think that we'll see a decade's worth of ruling the AL Central, but they are going to be fun to watch.  The players that are coming up in the next three to four years aren't the power hitters we have come to grow and love.  These are going to be guys that hit doubles and get on base and manufacture runs.  It is going to be very different.  It'll be a different type of game played.  Think of the way the Kansas City Royals play, that is how I think it'll be for the Tigers.  On base guys in front of some power bats.  These trades that were made are not going to solve the problem though.  It is just the start of the solution.  Al Avila is rebuilding the organization, he needs time.  They have drafted fairly well the last two years, getting some pitchers but also going after athletic players.  

I think these trades might have helped jump the rebuild ahead a year, but it will all depend on how the prospects develop.  I think they will be making noise in 2019 but 2020 or 2021 seems to be more likely for them to really threaten to take the AL Central back from other teams (most likely the Chicago White Sox).  That will depend on the coaching in the minors.  Get excited about the future Tigers fans.  It'll take some time, but get excited.  

Burn It To The Ground

The first big piece has moved out of Detroit.  The Tigers sent JD Martinez to Arizona for three prospects.  The immediate reaction from the twitterverse was less than favorable we'll say.  Al Avila's virtual head is on a pike outside of Comerica Park at this very instance.  Of course we as fans are upset over it.  No one really likes to see a fan favorite like Martinez get traded, but this is how you rebuild your farm system and major league club.  The fact that the Tigers haven't done this in recent years is in part to why there is tremendous backlash.  It's going to get worse, a lot worse, before it gets better.  The whole thing has to be burnt to the ground in order to rise again.  Get ready for some 2003 era type baseball to be played in Detroit folks. 

Here is the one thing that I think people need to keep in mind:  JD Martinez wasn't going to be playing for Detroit next year.  He is a free agent at the end of the year and is going to garner a lot of attention in the offseason.  He is going to be looking at a multi-million, multi-year deal.  This is something that the Tigers front office said going into this season that they are going to be moving away from.  They are getting 'younger and leaner' (Al Avila's words).  With the passing of Mike Illitch, the win now mentality that brought the big names and big contracts is gone.  It is now time to watch the team draft and trade for young talent and develop the team.  This has already started after Dombrowski was let go/fired after the 2015 trade deadline.  Avila is doing a good job in drafting and we are starting to see the draftees make their way up through the farm system.  Get familiar with names like Manning, Burrows, and Funkhouser.  Eventually those guys are going to be the core of the pitching staff. 

Patience is required for the next three to four years.  We won't see it from the fans, but that is what is needed.  Anyone with half a brain knew that this day was coming.  The major players are getting older and contracts are expiring.  The young talent might be forced into playing time before they are ready, but that happens when you are rebuilding the organization.  As great as it was to see the Tigers get big name players and be very successful over the past decade, it came at a cost.  They sold the future for the present.  While it didn't bring a World Series to the city, it made them relevant.  Avila was left holding the reins while Dombrowski went to Boston and has been gutting their farm system. 

We won't know if this trade was a good trade for another three or four years.  The guys they got back in the trade are 22, 21, and 18 years old.  The highest level any of them have played in is Double A.  They might not end up being blue chip, big name players.  But getting three players for one, even if two of them end up being just every day mediocre players, isn't that winning the trade?  Especially if you get these young players for five or six years of Major League play.     

Personally, I'm excited about the rebuild.  I know it is going to be painful to watch, but when it's all said and done, if the team becomes successful when the young players come up it'll be fun to see the bandwagon fans come back.  The people that are pissed that the organization is trading away players that they can no longer afford could come back into the fold.  Homegrown talent is what makes baseball fun.  You get to see the guys that are drafted by and then produce for the organization.  Even these young guys that are traded for early on in their careers will be seen as an organizational guy. 

Under Construction

'Never be afraid to fall apart because it is an opportunity to rebuild yourself.' -Rae Smith

In 2015, the Detroit Tigers came to the conclusion that their chances of getting to the post season were shot.  The team was not playing well, the fanbase was very displeased, and murmurs started of the team being sellers at the trade deadline at the end of July.  I was home on vacation when they sold off the few pieces that they could move.  David Price to Toronto.  Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets.  Jokiem Soria to the Pirates.  All players that the Tigers were not going to resign in the offseason.  The players they got back in return are mostly up with the big club now.  This was going to be a retooling the fans were told.  A one off.  In the next year or two the Tigers were going to be back to pushing for the playoffs.  They were in the playoff hunt last season and gave the fans hope that maybe 2015 was a bump in the road.  Eventually they missed the playoffs, but that was okay because they were close.

With Dave Dombrowski being replaced by Al Avila after the trade deadline in 2015 and the passing of owner Mike Illitch, the old guard is gone.  The Tigers did their best to get to a World Series for Mr. Illitch, but failed to do so.  Sadly.  Dombrowski and Illitch were win now guys.  They built the team to contend, and it was great.  It brought stars to the organization.  It made the team exciting.  Everyone loves a winning team.  While they were building a contending team, the minor league team suffered.  The farm system was (and continues to be) ranked at or near the bottom of the league.  This is how you build a win now team.  You sell the future for the present.  Al Avila has been left holding the reins on a dying team.  He has been at the helm for almost two years and has focused on the future.  Plenty of people want him gone, but I believe in him.  He needs time to draft for a couple of years and get players into the organization that will help the future out. 

Here we are in 2017 and the Tigers are slowly falling back again.  The rumors and murmurs are more dire than they were in 2015.  Talks of the Tigers going into full rebuild mode have sprung up.  It was reported early in the season that if the Tigers did not have a winning record by the end of June, they would be sellers at the trade deadline.  We are just over a week away from the end of the month and even if they win out the month, they'll still be near the .500 mark.  This is not good.  Everyone knows that no matter what, this team cannot make the playoffs.  Sure they are only three or four games back in the wild card race, but even if they make it, they cannot contend in the playoffs.  

If the organization goes into full rebuild mode it appears that not many players are safe.  It would be difficult to move players like Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Justin Verlander.  Mainly because they all have large contracts that not many teams want to take on.  If the Tigers move any of those players, most likely they would still have to eat some of the contract money and that binds their hands.  Victor is old and broken, it would be a miracle if any team asks about him.  Cabrera and Verlander are the faces of the franchise, can they be moved?  Absolutely, as painful as it is to say that.  If a team is willing to give up several top prospects for either of them and you are committed to the future, how could you not?  J.D. Martinez is the big name that people talk about.  He is a free agent at the end of the year and will probably not be with the team next year.  The way he is playing right now, he could bring back a couple of prospects at the trade deadline.  If he is still with the team in August, something is defiantly wrong.  Even players like Ian Kinsler, Justin Wilson, and Alex Avila are players people are talking about as being tradeable.  It's ugly, but that is how you contend in the future. 

People who know better than I think that this team will not be contenders until 2019 or even 2020.  The young talent is coming up through the organization.  There is plenty of buzz around the teams in West Michigan and Erie, but these players are young.  Mostly in their early 20s.  They need time to mature.  The talent is there and with the draft that was just completed, there is more optimism.  If you look at teams that are successful in the recent past (Kansas City, Houston, Chicago) they have all drafted and developed the talent.  These teams also suffered for long periods of time while drafting the talent.  I was listening to a podcast recently that was talking about how a team can be successful and it revolved around drafting and developing young talent and then getting a free agent or two to round out the team.  It is no longer about paying out big bucks and long contracts.  Having a team together for four or five years seems to be the mold.  Then you just hope that when the time comes you can move some pieces to make way for even younger talent.  It's a vicious cycle. 

While it is going to be painful to watch the Tigers over the course of the next few years, I am ready for it.  I am ready for the bandwagon fans to run away while the team struggles.  And I will be ready to welcome them all back once the team starts winning again.  Even if it won't be until 2020.  I will just enjoy the extra leg room on the bandwagon while you all go cheer for the Cubs and Astros. 

162 Games of Wonder

'Good seasons start with good beginnings.' -Sparky Anderson

We are less than two weeks away from Opening Day of baseball.  THIS IS NOT A DRILL!  Our long winter nightmare is almost over.  We got a wonderful taste of meaningful baseball with the World Baseball Classic tournament.  The WBC comes around every three years and I love it.  There's more outward emotion, explosive moments, and amazing moments (Adam Jones' leaping catch anyone?).  The wonderful thing about it is that it's just a two week tournament.  They cram lots of talent and entertainment in that time.  It's hard to think that this type of energy and hype and emotion can be spread out over the course of a 162 game season, but you can still enjoy the marathon that is the baseball season.

The A.L. Central is in flux right now.  A couple of teams in Minnesota and Chicago are in rebuild mode.  Detroit and Kansas City are both teams that can compete for a post season spot but are a few pieces away from being true contenders.  Only Cleveland got better this offseason.  At least it started out that way.  The injury bug has hit them a little bit in the last week, but they were the only team that added pieces.  Good pieces. 

They added Edwin Encarnacion and will have Andrew Miller (former Tiger Andrew Miller) for a full season.  When you're the reigning divisional and league champions and you add a couple of pieces that bolster your roster you are crowned the champs of the upcoming year.  On paper they should win the division.  Granted, it might be closer than last year because surely they won't beat Detroit fourteen out of eighteen games again.  Right?  RIGHT?  At least that is the hope.  They are pretty young with the exception of a few players and are just starting to hit their stride.  They could be the top of the division for the next few years until Chicago's team comes up.    

Chicago is in full rebuild mode and will be really good in about three or four years depending on the development of the prospects they added to their farm system when they traded away a couple of players.  Minnesota has been in rebuild mode since the early 2000s.  I'm starting to think that they aren't very good.  I know they are a small market team and can't draw big name players, but for a long time they had a highly rated farm system and the players haven't really panned out.  We've lived in Minnesota for quite some time now and I've gotten to see a lot of their games.  It's a struggle to sit through some of them because the talent isn't really there.  

Detroit went into the offseason saying that they were going to get 'younger and leaner'.  They traded away one player.  That was it.  Granted there were plenty of sighs of relief in Tiger Town, but at the same time they are getting older.  Everyone is happy about the trades they made to get their younger pitching staff, but the offense is getting old.  I don't know if they were asking for too much for the players that they were shopping or if no one was interested at all, but I was a bit disappointed.  I want to see them throw the towel in for a few years in an effort to get better in the long run.  This is how you reopen the window for championship runs.  They are still dangerous.  They are still good.  It will all depend on the pitching rotation.

What the hell happened to Kansas City?  Was it just a hiccup after going to back to back World Series?  They still have their core team.  They are still pretty young and just as talented.  Just like the Tigers, the team will go as far as the pitching staff will carry them.  If you don't have a starting rotation that can pitch your team to a good chunk of wins, you are in trouble.  Sure, their bullpen is still pretty good, but not as good as it was two years ago.  The game is no longer six innings before getting to a shutdown bullpen.  There are now holes in the armor.  Their core players are coming up on free agency.  If they don't sign team friendly contracts, Kansas City will be back to rebuilding.  They would need to trade away their star players to get young talent or draft picks back.  The Royals are still really good, don't get me wrong.  They just don't scare me as much as they did about four years ago.  It is very likely that they can come up and end ahead of Cleveland and Detroit.  Their roster is full of players that get it.  They know how to win and what it takes. 

With all that said, here's how I see the A.L. Central ending up when the season is complete:

1. Cleveland
2. Detroit
3. Kansas City
4. Minnesota
5. Chicago

I'm a big picture guy and I think that Detroit won't be in the playoff hunt and I hope that this is evident by the beginning of July.  They could trade off guys like J.D. Martinez and Justin Upton for prospects.  Martinez is up for free agency at the end of this year and if healthy is going to draw lots of interest and will probably come away with a large contract.  The Tigers are moving away from larger contracts so it is safe to say that unless he wants to sign a team friendly deal, he is going to be playing somewhere else in 2018.  If he signs elsewhere, the Tigers won't get anything in return.  They need to trade him away if there is no shot at the playoffs.  With some of the other teams in the MLB, I don't think they truly have a shot at the World Series, but who knows.  I hope I'm wrong on that.  Upton has an opt out clause in his contract.  He can bounce at the end of the year if he wants.  Yes he is under contract through 2021 (I think), but the opt out clause is there in case he wants to test free agency.  Again, if the Tigers want something in return he will need to be traded. 

Managerial Leash

'The head coach tells us what to do and we follow his orders.' -Peyton Manning 

If there is one thing that truly irritates me, it has to be a fan base wanting a manager axed just because the team struggles a bit.  Every team in every sport in every country I'm sure has had a call for a manager to be fired.  Coaches should be allowed at least five years to be in charge of a team before a major decision regarding their tenure is addressed.  Unless something major comes up that endangers or otherwise compromises a team or players, why can't they be given a certain time frame to institute their style on the organization?  The one thing that can help stabilize a team/organization is leadership.  Not the leadership that players provide, but the leadership management provides.  If an organization has the same manager for a sustained period of time, I believe they will inherently get better.  You wouldn't have a different leadership style every couple of years.  You wouldn't

Two coaches in Detroit, Brad Ausmus and Jeff Blashill, have been under quite a bit of scrutiny as of late because of the struggles of their teams.  While both coach for recently successful organizations, the fans don't seem to want to give them any slack or compassion.  The Red Wings are going to miss the post season for the first time in 25 years this season.  They have been awful this year, no doubt about it.  They are transitioning to a younger team.  Their veterans are on the verge of retiring and their young players are coming up.  There is going to be a learning curve for these young guys.  Their two plus decades of success have caught up with them as they have had very few high first round draft picks.  Yes, they have drafted and found talent, but players getting drafted in the top ten are there for a reason and the Wings haven't been able to capitalize with those high draft picks.  The Tigers are on the verge of getting 'younger and leaner' in the next few years.  They need to rebuild their farm system and in order to do so, they are going to have to draft and trade their way to do that.  In the next few years, Ausmus is going to grow as a manager or he will be fired.  There is no doubt about that.

I have faith that both managers will succeed.  Both have a good head on their shoulders, but more than that, they have an organization that is not rash in their moves.  At what point, however, does the ownership step in and cut the manager loose?  The leash on these managers seem to be pretty long.  The organizations seem to be letting them work through a lot of issues without stepping in.  I feel like that is a good sign.  With that said, the organizations do have to be ready to cut ties if that is what is best.  The past couple of years the Tigers have been signing Ausmus to a year to year contract.  That is a smart idea.  That way they aren't on the hook for an extended period of time if they do not see eye to eye with Ausmus or if Ausmus loses the team's confidence as manager.  It's smart, but at the same time can keep the team in flux.  Especially if the team has a bad year and Ausmus gets fired.  Then they are back to square one with a new manager and new voice. 

Entering his fourth season, Ausmus has managed the Tigers to a 250-234 (.517) record.  That's about 83 wins per season.  Not bad for a guy who hasn't had any MLB managing experience.  Granted, he was given a team with a strong track record of winning the majority of it's games.  Jeff Blashill was 41-30-11 in his first season as the head coach of the Red Wings and everyone thought it was going to be easy sailing as the team transitioned.  Not so much.  He and the team have struggled this year and many question whether or not he has the gumption to be an NHL coach.  He needs time to learn and grow.  The players know him from his and their time in the AHL.  

Blashill has some growing into the role to do, but Ausmus's learning curve is coming to an end.  The one thing that is really holding Ausmus back is his bullpen management.  Of course, if he had a bullpen with solidified roles, it would be much easier.  Blashill might not make it very long as the Red Wings head coach.  This organization is use to being a power house and relevant that he might be the fall guy as the team learns how to lose again.  The organization leadership hopefully sees him as the guy to lead the learning curve for the young players and keep him around.  Whether they do or not has yet to be seen, but I feel like he won't last very long.    

Missed Opportunity

At the beginning of this month, Major League Baseball had their annual Winter Meetings.  It's a time of year when you see some trades and free agent signings and is the first big splash event of the upcoming season.  A little strange to be thinking about baseball when there's a foot of snow on the ground, but for those of us who absolutely love this sport above all others, it can be a fun time.  There was plenty of speculation that the Detroit Tigers would be moving a few of their big name players in order to get 'leaner' as their GM Al Avila said.  However, they did nothing.  And they missed an opportunity.

In all the speculation of the Tigers being active players in the Winter Meetings, there were plenty of fans that were anxious as the weekend started.  They weren't going to move players like Verlander or Cabrera (or were they?) but there were thoughts that some of their younger players would be on the move.  Guys like JD Martinez and Ian Kinsler were talked about.  And even Justin Wilson and Jose Iglesias names popped up.  And then, just like that, the weekend was over.  And nothing happened.  For the Tigers anyway.

With them not doing anything, they missed an opportunity to get worse, but in the long run get better.  I know that most everyone agrees that if the Tigers were able to win a handful of games against Cleveland this past season they would have made the playoffs, but to what end?  What is the point of making the playoffs if you can't make a legitimate run at the World Series?  With Cleveland making it to game seven of the World Series, I got to thinking.  The Tigers need to let them have their fun in the sun in the division.  Let Cleveland have a few divisional titles while you rebuild and restock the farm system that Dave Dombrowski gutted (I know it wasn't that great of a system to begin with).  Kansas City is still up there and in the mix too.  Let those two battle it out while you sit back and develop a team for the future.

With the talent they have on their current MLB team, it makes it very difficult to just throw the towel in and come to grips with reality.  It seems like every year at the trade deadline the Tigers are either on the cusp of making the playoffs or clearly going to.  With that kind of situation, upper management doesn't want to sell off the pieces for the future.  Normally they want to buy at the trade deadline and make a push into the post season.  Think of two years ago when the Tigers made those trades at the deadline.  I know everyone came to the realization that the Tigers weren't going anywhere that year, but wasn't it exciting to get new young players?  And look, one of them ended up being Rookie of the Year last year!  Add to that that there are some people that think Fulmer isn't even the best of the young pitchers.  There are many that make the argument that Daniel Norris has better stuff and over time could be the better pitcher.  Isn't that exciting?!

With all of this in mind, the Tigers can still do something this season about getting younger and leaner.  At the trade deadline in July, there are always teams that are looking for just one extra player to take them over the top.  The Tigers have such players, and at the trade deadline the sellers hold the trump cards.  The Tigers also need to be smart about what they ask for.  They probably can't make the big splash with just one player, they need to piecemeal a team together.  Get two on the verge of making it minor leaguers for one big leaguer. 

Post Season Pursuit

This season has been playing out a lot better for the Detroit Tigers than it did last year.  By this time last year, they were out of the playoff picture.  Hell, they were out of it by the All Star break.  The fans of the team came to the realization that they are going to be rebuilding over the next few years.  Especially after they traded away big names for prospects.  Much to my surprise, the Tigers find themselves in the hunt for the post season.  This is more exciting than the years that they were dominating the AL Central.  Was it nice when they were easily winning their division?  Yes, it was a guarantee they would be playing baseball into the end of September and October.  But the excitement and anxiety of each game just wasn't there.  Plus, the players know that every game counts.  They know that they have to go that extra mile and make that one extra play that could turn a lose into a win.  Now, every game matters as they battle back and forth with several teams for the playoffs. 

As I eluded to, after last season's disastrous end, I did not have many expectations for the Tigers.  I was hoping for a .500 record by seasons end as they worked the new prospects into the system.  They still have hold overs from their domination the past eight or nine seasons, but they also got younger.  With the emergence of some of the prospects throughout the season, the hopes of the fans grew.  This season is a great example of how baseball is a marathon and not a sprint.  In early May, the Tigers went on a horrendous run and lost eleven of thirteen games.  It was a dark time.  Many thought that they were going to dismiss Brad Ausmus as the manager.  If they had a more excitable or unsteady front office they might have.  They have also lost twelve of the thirteen games they have played against the divisional leader, Cleveland.  If you were to combine those two statistics, you would think that this team was dead in the water in June.  However, they are still within reach of the playoffs.  Most people think it will be through the wild card as opposed to the division.  They are five or six games back of Cleveland, which makes their struggles against that team that much more glaring.  Essentially, they have to win all the remaining games against Cleveland to have any shot at catching them.  Imagine if they had won just three more games against them!  They still have seven or eight games against Cleveland, and you know damn well that every broadcaster is going to bring up their struggles.  Let us hope that it doesn't get in the Tigers' head.  The wild card is now a two team play in game.  The Tigers are going back and forth with Baltimore for the second wild card spot, and they have a big series against them this weekend coming up.  That is where they could make their push for the playoffs.  If they sweep Baltimore, or get swept themselves, it could give a more clear playoff picture. 

The Tigers are not an excitable team.  You don't see them jumping out of the dugout after great plays.  They have that 'let's get this win and move on to the next one' approach.  That is a trait of their leadership.  Both the players and the management.  There are plenty of people out there that would like to see more emotion out of the team, but that's not their style.  Many like to point out that Brad Ausmus isn't a very excitable manager, and it's true.  Sure, it was amazing when he covered home plate with his hoodie earlier this year.  I saw that as his moment to show emotion and show the team that he's there for them, to have their backs.  It's like Jim Leyland's explosion all those years ago about the team just wanting to get on the plane after playing terribly against Cleveland (I believe it was).  All you fans know what I'm talking about. 

One thing I love about the Tigers is that they just have their expectations to drive them and their fan base.  They don't rely on a gimmick to drive the excitement.  They don't have a rally monkey or a rally mantis.  They have their solid play.  They have their experience to draw upon.  Even if the Tigers don't make it to the playoffs, it has been more entertaining this year to watch.  Yes, it's more stressful knowing that each lose puts them further back, but it also makes each win that much more important.  And just think, if they're playing this well now, how much better is the future once these rookies and prospects come into their own?

Non Cellar Sellers

The baseball trading deadline is approaching and the Detroit Tigers are once again faced with a tough decision.  Just like last year, they are not one hundred percent out of the post season race (yes, I know it's July) but they aren't exactly in a spot to be comfortable with their fall season chances.  So what are they to do?  Last year, they had some pieces that they were willing to trade away (Price, Cespedes, Soria) and in return they restocked the farm system.  They are no longer the worst in the league, but those moves didn't exactly vault them to the top farm systems.  The difference between last season and this season is that the players that they did move weren't going to resign with the team nor were they difficult to move because they were big names.  This season, the Tigers don't really have the pieces that they can move while improving the future of the team while at the same time not hindering it.

Now why do I think that they should be selling at the trade deadline?  They aren't at or near the bottom of the division.  They are in the hunt for the wild card at least.  There isn't any way they are going to catch Cleveland.  Especially seeing as how they've lost twelve of thirteen games to them this season.  Could they buy at the trade deadline and make a push for the playoffs?  Absolutely.  However, with the way the wildcard is set up, they would be making moves to play one playoff game.  ONE!  If they were to lose that game, they would be done.  I'm looking to the future.  I would rather see the Tigers miss the playoffs for a few years while they restock their farm system with younger talent.  The star players they have now at the highest level are getting older and if they start to stockpile prospects now, they could be ready by the time the current roster turns over.  It's simple and well run organizations understand this concept.  The chance for the Tigers to win the World Series is over, sadly, for right now.  There are too many teams that have leapfrogged them as far as talent.  They have to just remain relevant so when they make another push in a few years, the big name free agents who could help push them over the top will want to sign with them.  If they can go season to season and hover around the .500 mark, when they are ready to push for a deep playoff run they could lure players again.  

Here is where we run into a problem.  Who do they trade?  Who can they depart with and still feel great about where they sit?  What type of players should they go after?  So.  Many.  Questions.  I think that with the moves they made last year, they have set up their pitching staff of the future.  We have all seen what Michael Fulmer is capable of, Daniel Norris has been hit and miss, Matt Boyd is still several years out.  If these guys can all stay healthy, and produce, we could be looking at a strong pitching core.  They also picked up JaCoby Jones who could be a great middle infielder for the future.  They have some talent coming up in the next three to four years, but it never hurts to have more.  They can always use them to trade away for if and when they can make a strong push into the playoffs.  I think that where the Tigers need the most help is the outfield.  Especially after J.D. Martinez broke his elbow.  I thought for few games that Steven Moya would do well for the time that J.D. was going to be out.  But by all accounts, he is best served as a designated hitter or a pinch hitter.  His defense still needs to catch up, but could he be moved for a more serviceable outfielder of the future?

What about Justin Upton?  I know the Tigers just signed him this offseason, but the fact that there is an opt out option after this season is disconcerting.  He could leave and the Tigers would get nothing in return.  It's almost like the situation they faced last year with Price and Cespedes.  The difference being Price and Cespedes were free agents at the end of last season and Upton does have a six year contract so he could stay in Detroit, it would just be a matter of whether or not he would.  I'm not sure how they determine that, but if he decides to leave I wouldn't be heartbroken (I didn't like the signing to begin with) but I would be upset that the Tigers wouldn't move him now to get some compensation.  And who would be looking for a bat that has been struggling this season?  Hopefully he gets hot in the next week and teams start kicking tires.  

Another player that might intrigue teams is Jose Iglesias.  Not for his bat per say, but more for his glove.  I enjoy watching him play and he has really solidified the middle infield with Kinsler.  He does have streaks in him that make me want the Tigers to keep him, but his injury history makes me leery.  The Tigers have is a prospect that can take his place in Dixon Machado.  True, he is someone that wouldn't really be ready until 2018 or '19 so maybe the Tigers shouldn't move Iglesias right now plus his contract is still team friendly.  But in the future, maybe they ship him off somewhere.  Maybe next year.  Next year when all the players are just a little older but still productive.  Next year when the Tigers may or may not be in the same situation they are in now.

After watching teams like the Royals and Astros rebuild through the draft and player development, I want the Tigers to take a similar approach.  I would like for them to give up on winning now.  The last good chance they had at winning a World Series was in 2012 and got steam rolled by the Giants.  After that, everyone could tell that they needed to restock and rebuild.  They just haven't done it until last year.  Mike Ilitch wouldn't allow it.  He wants a championship.  And I understand that, but what he wants isn't what is good for the team or organization.  Saying that I want the Tigers to rebuild doesn't mean I've given up any kind of hope that they play well, I just know that where they are now won't win them any kind of championship.  Besides, if I stayed a fan after the early 2000s what makes you think I would give up on my Tigers.  Life long fans of any team understand the need to rebuild or retool or reboot, or whatever you want to call it.  

Call it Like it Is

During the last seven game losing streak, I saw plenty of 'what's wrong with the Detroit Tigers?'  They have enough talent to avoid a losing streak like that.  Unless, of course, they are facing a few teams that are better.  They were feeling good after sweeping the Twins.  The eight win and infinity lose Twins of 2016.  They got swept by Cleveland and Texas right after that.  So what's wrong with the Tigers?  Nothing.  They just aren't as good as they were four or five years ago. And that's okay.  

It's okay that they aren't winning their division because the talent is coming. The right moves were made to restock the farm system.  After they traded away Price, Cespedes, and Soria, they sent a message that they are in the process of rebuilding. I initially thought that it would be a reboot and they'd be back in playoff races the next season or the season after that.  However, I've watched a few games and against good to great teams, the Tigers aren't on the same level.  And we all need to come to grips with reality:  the Tigers aren't that good anymore.

Rational fans will tell you that the moves they made last year were the right moves. Irrational fans still think the Tigers have a legit shot at the playoffs or even the World Series. That's not to say they aren't in the top half of MLB, it's just that they've been surpassed by other teams.  I think that part of it is because of Mike Illitch.  To be fair, he is key to the Tigers being relevant again, but his win now mentality has hurt the current state of the Tigers.  Their window to win the World Series closed when they were swept by the Giants.  It's been a slow and steady decline and I don't think they have hit bottom yet.

As much as we fans don't want to hear it, if the Tigers really want to be relevant in the next six or seven years, they have to bottom out. Maybe they build around J.D. Martinez and Nick Castellanos. They can't move their big contract players like Miguel Cabrera or Victor Martinez, but maybe they can move guys like Jose Iglesias and get some prospects in return.  I shouldn't say they can't move Cabrera, I should say they won't.  If they wanted to give up on the next four years they could trade him away.  They would be able to restock the farm system for sure if they did.

Dream Lineup

Is anyone else in dire need of baseball?  I'm starting to get itchy for balls and strikes and doubles rolling into the gap.  The Detroit Tigers have been busy this offseason cleaning up after last year's mess of a season, and it has gotten me thinking about how they are going to look this season.  The major new piece is Justin Upton, whom they signed to a six year, hundreds of millions of dollars contract.  Everyone seems to be happy about it, but I'm a little hesitant because he seems a bit streaky to me.  Don't get me wrong, I love his defense and was a solid option to put out in left field, but from what I can tell, he seems to be a streaky hitter that can carry a team or cause ulcers in the fans and managers.  The big question after his signing is where will he hit in the lineup.  There's lots of options because he has pop in his bat, has speed if needed, and can provide high on-base percentage at bats.  Below is what I think is a good idea of a lineup.  People who know more than I might yell and scream about it, but let me defend myself. 

1.  Ian Kinsler
2.  Jose Iglesias
3.  Miguel Cabrera
4.  J.D. Martinez
5.  Victor Martinez
6.  Justin Upton
7.  James McCann
8.  Nick Castellanos
9.  Anthony Gose/Cameron Maybin

Kinsler has history at the lead off spot in Texas and in Detroit, I like him there again this year.  He's a veteran bat that can reach the seats, but can also slap doubles down the line...when he's not popping up that is.  He is the leadoff man that you want on your team.  While his speed is slowly declining, he can still swipe bases, but with the lineup behind him, he doesn't necessarily need to make things happen. 

Iglesias might spark some questions, but hear me out.  Over the past two years, he has hit .300 and had an on base percentage of .348.  He dropped his strikeouts by twenty last year while doubling his walks.  Those are the four major stats that I look at with a batter like Iglesias.  He isn't going to hit twenty to twenty five home runs a year, he's the guy that is going to manufacture runs with average and speed.  If he can build off of last year's stats, he can be a good number two hitter.  What I look for in a number two hitter is, can he move the leadoff guy?  Can he set up the power hitters for a big start to the game?  I know he has hung out at the bottom of the order during his career, but I think he has the potential to be a top of the order guy.  He does need to work on the double plays he hits into, but I think he could fit near the top.

Cabrera....that's all I need to say.

J.D. Martinez is better protection for Cabrera than Victor Martinez (based on last year).  Victor struggled (and I mean STRUGGLED) last year.  J.D. Martinez is surging into the prime of his career.  Why wouldn't you want a guy like J.D. protecting your best hitter?  Now, I know Victor has more history than J.D., but he has not been healthy two of the last three years, and until he proves to me that he can be that hitter he was two years ago, I think J.D. is the better option.  The one major problem is that Victor is that he is so slow on the base path.  He makes molasses in February look fast.  Is it a possibility that the Super Martinez Brothers can be swapped out throughout the year?  Absolutely.

The next three guys can be juggled in the six through eight spots throughout the year.  From what I can gather from each of them, they all go in streaks.  Hot for a six game stretch, cold the next two weeks.  Hot for a month, cold for a week.  James McCann is a work in progress, he has not been around long enough to have a strong opinion on him.  I think he will be what we all thought Alex Avila was going to be after his 2011 season.  The kid looks like he was plucked out of a corn field in Iowa (yes, I know he is from Arkansas) and given a bat.  I like him to be the catcher for the foreseeable future.  DON'T FUCK THIS UP!  Justin Upton, as stated above, can go on those hot and cold streaks.  Over the past three seasons, he's batted .263, .271, and .251.  Each year he has played an entire season, he's struck out over 120 times.  So it is going to be frustrating at times.  But he can also excited the stadium with his power.  Looking at the average, he can hit 25 home runs in a season.  Nick Castellanos continues to slowly come into his own.  Some fans are frustrated with the progress.  It's coming along people, give it time.  I think if he can bat between .265-.280 with 15 to 20 home runs, 75-80 RBI, how is that a bad thing?  He may be cemented into the eight spot until he get hot and the other guys get cold, but that is fine.  He is still getting his footing at the top level, for him to struggle at times it is almost a necessity.  How else is he going to learn?   

Anthony Goes and Cameron Maybin will be in a time share in the outfield and at the bottom of the order.  If they can get on base, they both have speed to be disruptive.  Other than that, there's nothing to see here folks, move along.  

Just because you have a lineup one day doesn't mean it needs to stay the same the next day, the day after that, or after that.  Hopefully as he gets another year under his belt, Brad Ausmus will start to manage the game as it comes to him.  Not just put one guy in one spot because he always bats there.  If someone is going through a slump, even if he's a star or veteran, why not shake things up a bit?  

Reboot: Complete

Before the MLB trade deadline, I wrote a post about how the Tigers needed to be sellers and restock their joke of a farm system.  They traded away both David Price and Yoenis Cespedes and in return got five players, all of them pitchers.  And these aren't pitchers that are all five years away from being in the bigs, they will be ready in the next year or two.  Daniel Norris (the highest rated of all five) is already in the rotation.  They even traded away Joakim Soria to the Pirates for a batter that will have an impact two to three years from now.  Sorry I don't remember all the names, but I'm not writing to analyze the trades (they were necessary and extremely helpful), I'm writing because it's going to be both frustrating and exciting for Tigers fans in the next two to three years.

It's funny because MLB analysts can't exactly agree on the trades.  Some like to point to the fact that the Tigers, at the time of the trade deadline, were only three games out of the second wildcard spot.  And they could have been buyers at the deadline and made a push for the playoffs.  They go to the Kansas City Royals and San Fransisco Giants are evidence that all you have to do is make it into the playoffs and then anything can happen.  Here's the flaw in their arguments, the Tigers aren't the Royals or the Giants from last year.  This year, they have not shown the ability to rattle off ten or eleven wins in a row since the first two weeks of the year.

Some analysts point to the fact that the Tigers needed to pull the trades off because they needed something in return for them.  Both Price and Cespedes are free agents at the end of the year.  So, instead of getting nothing for them (think Max Scherzer), they got a return in their investment.  They traded for them last year in the hopes of getting to the World Series.  People who are big picture people understand that the Tigers needed to do this in order to stay relevant not this year or even next, but three and four and five years down the road.  That is the hope anyway.  And that is how I looked at these trades.  You never want to give up on the hopes of making the playoffs, but even if they had made it to the post season, I didn't see them making a deep run.  This is for the better of the team and for the fans.  They just have to practice the one thing that fans don't practice:  patience.  

It is going to be frustrating because the fan base has become accustomed to winning.  They are use to see the team play into the end of September.  They are also becoming entitled (the fans, not the players) because they are familiar with winning.  I feel as though not all of them were cheering for the Tigers in 2003.  I feel as though they remembered the team right around 2006.  And have been fans ever since!  It is going to be frustrating because the Tigers are going to lose more than they have over the past nine years.

It is going to be exciting because the future is coming.  Even if two or three of the five pitchers pan out, it will be looked at as a good trade for the team.  The trades needed to happen.  Both Price and Cespedes were not going to sign with the Tigers in the offseason, in my opinion.  They are the types of players that want to win.  Plus, with the Tigers trading them away, they avoid big contracts.  There are some mid-level free agents that they can sign in the offseason that can help bridge the gap between the present and the future.

Personally, I'm excited to see what happens with these players.  For the first time in a long time, the farm system has players that can make an impact.  They aren't just filler for an injured player.  They are part of the plan.  They are the future.  And the future is a little bit brighter than it was at the beginning of the season.  And look, is it disappointing that in this nine year span the Tigers didn't win a World Series?  Yes.  Obviously.  No one really likes saying 'hey, at least we made it!'  But if we always got what we wanted, the Tigers would be winning the World Series year after year, I would be the head curator at the Baseball Hall of Fame, and I would have three or four thirty year old bottles of scotch in my house.  

Hit the Reset

As sad as it is to think about, the Detroit Tigers season is on the brink of being over.  And it's July!  It's funny to think about it like that, but with the way that they have been struggling over the last month, combined with the way other teams have been playing well, the Tigers are slipping further and further out of the playoff hunt.  The trade deadline is fast approaching and the Tigers need to look to the future if they want to stay relevant in the years to come.  It's been wonderful over the past several years to watch their success, but now is the time to restock the farm system they have gutted getting the big name players they have on their roster.  I am not calling for a full on rebuild of the team, but a reset.

The Tigers' farm system has long been the joke of the major league.  Mainly because drafting is not their strong suit.  Ever since 2006, the Tigers have been built to win now.  And while they have been a power within the American League and a post season presence, the win now team is slowly getting older.  And unfortunately, it has not resulted in a World Series win.  Injuries this year are showing how poorly developed the farm system is.  The replacements for injured stars are no where near ready and probably will not be for years (or ever).  

So how do they reset instead of rebuild?  They need to trade some big names for near ready prospects.  And they have the big names to trade.  Two of them in fact.  Two of them that are poised for free agency.  David Price and Yoenis Cespedes.  But did they not just trade for these two in the last year?  Yes.  Yes they did.  Now it's time to turn around and get some prospects for them.  So where do the Tigers need the most help?  Pitching.  Starting and relief pitching.  So why would they trade away Price, one of the top pitchers in the game right now?  Because if you can get two or maybe three young pitchers in return, one of which who could step up in the next year, why wouldn't you?  Even Cespedes can be traded away for pitching.  And while it will put a hurt on the batting lineup, at least they won't be in as bad of shape as the pitching staff would be if Price were traded away.  

And how are the successful teams are winning right now?  Pitching and defense.  Strong pitching and strong defense is how winning teams are built around right now.  The Tigers have one of those.  They have defense.  But if the pitching staff is not solid and giving up hits and runs, you cannot win games.  Especially if the bats are not hot.  If you can trade away Price or Cespedes and get a couple of young arms, people will be happy.  Maybe not this year or the year after, but once they develop and mature, they could have an impact.  A positive impact. 

I don't have any idea if there are any minor league pitchers that the Tigers have an eye on.  I don't know if they will trade Price or Cespedes or any other player they currently have.  What I do know is that they need to do so.  Most people think that the Tigers could be either buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.  It all depends on how they do in the next few games.  Well, in my eyes, they need to be sellers.  They need to get something back for Price and Cespedes.  Why?  Because they are both going to split town because they are smart and anyone with a set of eyes and half a brain can see the Tigers are on the downside of a decade long run of being relevant.  They both want to win.  They both know they won't win a World Series in Detroit.  Not because the Tigers can't, but because other teams can.  Other teams are poised to go further than Detroit this year and in the upcoming years.  So, the Tigers need to trade them away and get something back.  They couldn't last year with Max Scherzer because they were leading the AL Central and were going to make it to the playoffs.  This year, however, I don't see them making the playoffs.  They need to cash in their chips, take a deep breath, and hope like hell they can regroup.      

It could be a struggle for Tigers fans for the next couple of years as they reset their system, but it won't be that bad.  All I have to say is, at least it isn't 2003 and 2004.  Remember that guys?  I hope does not get that bad.  Ever.  Again.