While my mind is on the Detroit Tigers, I thought of something the other day that makes me wonder if it would be a smart move. In an effort to put less stress on the arms of the current pitching staff, would it be advisable to move to a six man starting rotation? By all accounts, the prospects that the Tigers have won't be ready until 2019 and 2020. And in some cases, even as late as 2021. That is two, three, and four years that the pitchers will have on their arms for throw away seasons.
Teams work with a five man starting rotations. During the course of a season, on average, guys are making about thirty starts. The work horses of a team, the top two guys, will throw two hundred plus innings. The magic number for a starting pitcher each game was once one hundred pitches. Absolutely there are going to be games that a starter gets pulled early or could throw seven or eight innings. There are going to be games when he is efficient with his pitches and games when he will struggle. If you look at an 'average' year and called it thirty starts, one hundred pitches per start, and two hundred innings, that is three thousand pitches on a guy's arm. I know it is not an exact science, and there are always going to be disabled list stints ans skipped starts. For the sake of this argument, if you take just the top two guys (in the Tigers' case Michael Fulmer and Daniel Norris) that is a ton of mileage on your future rotation anchors for years that mean nothing. By 2021, that can be close to nine thousand pitches thrown.
IF, by chance, the Tigers wanted to do something crazy and throw in one more pitcher into the rotation, that could have a great impact on the guys that are up in the MLB right now. A sixth man would drop an average year from thirty starts down to twenty five (again, a basic average). That is five hundred fewer pitches each year. Not only is it fewer starts and pitches each year, it is also an extra day rest and recovery. Saving these arms for when the younger players are ready to make an impact could make the difference when it comes to a playoff run. I know more goes into a starting pitcher's year than basic numbers I just happen to throw out, but can you imagine a pitcher's career being elongated one or two more years just because of something small like adding one extra starting pitcher for just two or three years.
Would something like this work? Most starting pitchers condition themselves to be ready to throw every fifth game. Would changing your routine by one day make a difference? Could these guys adjust to something like that? Another idea that has been floated is 'bullpening'. The main idea is that starters go three or four innings then the game is turned over to the bullpen. Some teams are starting to build super bullpens where they add shut down guys. It use to be a team would have a guy for the 7th, 8th, and 9th inning in a set role, now you see relief pitchers in all kinds of different innings. Yes, this would limit starter's innings, but if they know that they are only going to be out there for four innings, won't they just go out and throw as hard as they can? Empty the gas tank as it were. I think the idea of bullpening is maybe a little more dangerous to the starters because of that. They'll throw harder in a shorter period of time than they would if their starts were longer.
Maybe we'll see a team here and there try something like this for a short period of time. Maybe coming out of Spring Training there are a couple of guys fighting for that last rotation spot and the manager wants to see them duke it out for a few more weeks. However, I don't think this is something that will catch on. It wouldn't last all season. I like any idea that could help preserve someone's career whether it is having a six man rotation or a super bullpen when relievers are coming out in the fourth inning. If a guy can go out there and throw for one more year because he has pitched fewer innings in the past, wouldn't an idea like this be kind of worth it? Besides, all it takes is one pitch for a man's career to be over.
28 February 2018
27 February 2018
A Difference in Terribleness
The next three or four years are going to be terrible if you are a Detroit Tigers fan. Last year marked the end of an era. They started the full rebuild process. Well known players were shipped away and in return guys who won't sniff the MLB for another three years. It's tough. It is tough to give up on the level the Tigers have been at for the past ten or eleven years. Coming to grips with how bad the Tigers are going to be for the next few years is going to be easier than when they were bad in the early 2000s. For the main reason in that the future is bright. Kind of.
The one main difference between the two terrible teams is that the 2018 Tigers are going to be launching off point for the future. Yes, over the next two or three years the Tigers are going to be losing close to 100 games a year. A good year will see them lose maybe 90 games. This is not a positive outlook, I know. The prospects that the Tigers got last year are so young and raw that they aren't on many peoples' radar. It could be that they end up being just average players, but they could also be borderline stars. They might just be what we fans are looking for. They'll be labeled as the 'blue collar, lunch pail' guys that the city of Detroit will embrace. This is how the Kansas City Royals did it. Talented players but not super stars.
The early 2000s Tigers were just bad. There was no hopeful future. Thanks Randy Smith. It wasn't until Dave Dombrowski came in and started trading away prospects to get big name players that they started to get better. They went out, they spent, and they are living with the contractual obligations. The end of Victor Martinez's contract and career is dragging on the organization. That'll be over after this year. Same thing with Miguel Cabrera. We all love Miggy, but it is getting close to the end of his career and he isn't who he use to be.
The times have changed though. The days of seven and eight year, hundreds of million dollar contracts, for the Tigers at least, are done. The young players are going to be around just long enough to get the Tigers back into the top teams. Then, when free agency rolls around they'll leave to a team like the Red Sox or Yankees or Dodgers if they're good enough. This is how baseball is now. You develop the talent, use them to make deep playoff runs and then when it comes time to pay up big time, there are only a few markets that can oblige them. Then it is back to square one. This is where the Tigers cannot falter. They cannot let up on drafting and developing young talent because as soon as the prospects they got last year are gone, the next group has to be ready for the Show. This is what needs to happen in order to sustain long runs in the MLB now.
The one main difference between the two terrible teams is that the 2018 Tigers are going to be launching off point for the future. Yes, over the next two or three years the Tigers are going to be losing close to 100 games a year. A good year will see them lose maybe 90 games. This is not a positive outlook, I know. The prospects that the Tigers got last year are so young and raw that they aren't on many peoples' radar. It could be that they end up being just average players, but they could also be borderline stars. They might just be what we fans are looking for. They'll be labeled as the 'blue collar, lunch pail' guys that the city of Detroit will embrace. This is how the Kansas City Royals did it. Talented players but not super stars.
The early 2000s Tigers were just bad. There was no hopeful future. Thanks Randy Smith. It wasn't until Dave Dombrowski came in and started trading away prospects to get big name players that they started to get better. They went out, they spent, and they are living with the contractual obligations. The end of Victor Martinez's contract and career is dragging on the organization. That'll be over after this year. Same thing with Miguel Cabrera. We all love Miggy, but it is getting close to the end of his career and he isn't who he use to be.
The times have changed though. The days of seven and eight year, hundreds of million dollar contracts, for the Tigers at least, are done. The young players are going to be around just long enough to get the Tigers back into the top teams. Then, when free agency rolls around they'll leave to a team like the Red Sox or Yankees or Dodgers if they're good enough. This is how baseball is now. You develop the talent, use them to make deep playoff runs and then when it comes time to pay up big time, there are only a few markets that can oblige them. Then it is back to square one. This is where the Tigers cannot falter. They cannot let up on drafting and developing young talent because as soon as the prospects they got last year are gone, the next group has to be ready for the Show. This is what needs to happen in order to sustain long runs in the MLB now.
16 February 2018
Healthy Cost
It seems like every once in a while I get this idea in the back of my head that I want to exercise and be healthy. It's a dark, terrible thought as I enjoy coming home from work and doing nothing. It is usually in the winter months when it gets dark outside early and we spend so much time in the house because of the cold. Around the beginning of the year, I looked into a couple of local fitness centers and the YMCA that are close to us. It should not come as a surprise, but exercising is expensive. I was just curious about the cost and was honestly taken a little aback by it.
I understand that the costs go into paying employees and the upkeep of the facilities and all that, but goddamn. A membership for two adults at the local YMCA is just under $120 a month (or $70 for individual membership). There are also facilities like Anytime Fitness, Snap Fitness, LA Fitness, etc. in the area. Memberships ranging from $30-$50 dollars depending on the company. That is just from a quick search of prices. Who knows if there are any fees for registration or monthly dues. Are those a thing?
We could afford any of these places, but it would be something that we would have to budget out. We are just getting over the fact that we replaced the furnace a few months ago. Personally, it was a bit of a shock to see the prices. Not a 'find me a fainting couch' type of shock, more of a 'huh, I was not expecting that' type of shock. Like I said, I totally understand the reason for the prices. It would be just as easy to go out and buy a bike and exercise that way or find some walking paths at local parks. On the other hand, walking and biking during the winter months do not sound quite so fun.
Being motivated to get out of the house and exercise is tough. My thought is if I were putting money on a monthly basis towards a facility, I would want to get out and use it. I'm paying for it, you know? Wouldn't want to be wasting the money on something I don't use.
I understand that the costs go into paying employees and the upkeep of the facilities and all that, but goddamn. A membership for two adults at the local YMCA is just under $120 a month (or $70 for individual membership). There are also facilities like Anytime Fitness, Snap Fitness, LA Fitness, etc. in the area. Memberships ranging from $30-$50 dollars depending on the company. That is just from a quick search of prices. Who knows if there are any fees for registration or monthly dues. Are those a thing?
We could afford any of these places, but it would be something that we would have to budget out. We are just getting over the fact that we replaced the furnace a few months ago. Personally, it was a bit of a shock to see the prices. Not a 'find me a fainting couch' type of shock, more of a 'huh, I was not expecting that' type of shock. Like I said, I totally understand the reason for the prices. It would be just as easy to go out and buy a bike and exercise that way or find some walking paths at local parks. On the other hand, walking and biking during the winter months do not sound quite so fun.
Being motivated to get out of the house and exercise is tough. My thought is if I were putting money on a monthly basis towards a facility, I would want to get out and use it. I'm paying for it, you know? Wouldn't want to be wasting the money on something I don't use.
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