'Never be afraid to fall apart because it is an opportunity to rebuild yourself.' -Rae Smith
In 2015, the Detroit Tigers came to the conclusion that their chances of getting to the post season were shot. The team was not playing well, the fanbase was very displeased, and murmurs started of the team being sellers at the trade deadline at the end of July. I was home on vacation when they sold off the few pieces that they could move. David Price to Toronto. Yoenis Cespedes to the Mets. Jokiem Soria to the Pirates. All players that the Tigers were not going to resign in the offseason. The players they got back in return are mostly up with the big club now. This was going to be a retooling the fans were told. A one off. In the next year or two the Tigers were going to be back to pushing for the playoffs. They were in the playoff hunt last season and gave the fans hope that maybe 2015 was a bump in the road. Eventually they missed the playoffs, but that was okay because they were close.
With Dave Dombrowski being replaced by Al Avila after the trade deadline in 2015 and the passing of owner Mike Illitch, the old guard is gone. The Tigers did their best to get to a World Series for Mr. Illitch, but failed to do so. Sadly. Dombrowski and Illitch were win now guys. They built the team to contend, and it was great. It brought stars to the organization. It made the team exciting. Everyone loves a winning team. While they were building a contending team, the minor league team suffered. The farm system was (and continues to be) ranked at or near the bottom of the league. This is how you build a win now team. You sell the future for the present. Al Avila has been left holding the reins on a dying team. He has been at the helm for almost two years and has focused on the future. Plenty of people want him gone, but I believe in him. He needs time to draft for a couple of years and get players into the organization that will help the future out.
Here we are in 2017 and the Tigers are slowly falling back again. The rumors and murmurs are more dire than they were in 2015. Talks of the Tigers going into full rebuild mode have sprung up. It was reported early in the season that if the Tigers did not have a winning record by the end of June, they would be sellers at the trade deadline. We are just over a week away from the end of the month and even if they win out the month, they'll still be near the .500 mark. This is not good. Everyone knows that no matter what, this team cannot make the playoffs. Sure they are only three or four games back in the wild card race, but even if they make it, they cannot contend in the playoffs.
If the organization goes into full rebuild mode it appears that not many players are safe. It would be difficult to move players like Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, and Justin Verlander. Mainly because they all have large contracts that not many teams want to take on. If the Tigers move any of those players, most likely they would still have to eat some of the contract money and that binds their hands. Victor is old and broken, it would be a miracle if any team asks about him. Cabrera and Verlander are the faces of the franchise, can they be moved? Absolutely, as painful as it is to say that. If a team is willing to give up several top prospects for either of them and you are committed to the future, how could you not? J.D. Martinez is the big name that people talk about. He is a free agent at the end of the year and will probably not be with the team next year. The way he is playing right now, he could bring back a couple of prospects at the trade deadline. If he is still with the team in August, something is defiantly wrong. Even players like Ian Kinsler, Justin Wilson, and Alex Avila are players people are talking about as being tradeable. It's ugly, but that is how you contend in the future.
People who know better than I think that this team will not be contenders until 2019 or even 2020. The young talent is coming up through the organization. There is plenty of buzz around the teams in West Michigan and Erie, but these players are young. Mostly in their early 20s. They need time to mature. The talent is there and with the draft that was just completed, there is more optimism. If you look at teams that are successful in the recent past (Kansas City, Houston, Chicago) they have all drafted and developed the talent. These teams also suffered for long periods of time while drafting the talent. I was listening to a podcast recently that was talking about how a team can be successful and it revolved around drafting and developing young talent and then getting a free agent or two to round out the team. It is no longer about paying out big bucks and long contracts. Having a team together for four or five years seems to be the mold. Then you just hope that when the time comes you can move some pieces to make way for even younger talent. It's a vicious cycle.
While it is going to be painful to watch the Tigers over the course of the next few years, I am ready for it. I am ready for the bandwagon fans to run away while the team struggles. And I will be ready to welcome them all back once the team starts winning again. Even if it won't be until 2020. I will just enjoy the extra leg room on the bandwagon while you all go cheer for the Cubs and Astros.